← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 7, 07:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Boavista win | 38% | 46% | 2.58 | value: +18% |
| Vitória SC win | 32% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Boavista +0 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Vitória SC +0 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 65% | 1.63 | value: +6% |
| Over | 41% | 35% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 17 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.