← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 53% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.76 | fair |
| FC Porto win | 21% | 20% | 4.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| FC Porto −0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 58% | 1.81 | value: +5% |
| Over | 46% | 42% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Diogo Costa · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 14' | 🟨 | Florentino Luís · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 23' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 49' | 🟨 | Gilberto · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 52' | 🟨 | Wilson Manafá · FC Porto |
| 54' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | António Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 🟨 |
| Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 280.00 | 2136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1908.38 | 1921.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.55 | -15.51 |
| eye test v1 | 1.58 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.10 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.73 |
| league points | 71.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.73 | 2.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 29.16 |
| state index | 1.84 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |