← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 42% | 49% | 2.33 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.26 | fair |
| Boavista win | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Maritimo −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 39% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | André Vidigal · Maritimo |
| 22' | ⚽ | Félix Correia · Maritimo |
| 48' | 🟨 | Bruno Xadas · Maritimo |
| 50' | ⚽ | André Vidigal · Maritimo |
| 59' | ⚽ | Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Reggie Cannon · Boavista |
| 80' | 🟨 | Moises Mosquera · Maritimo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
| 85' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Maritimo |
| 87' | ⚽ | Bruno Lourenço · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | Brayan Riascos · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 122.00 |
| 487.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1438.52 | 1509.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.62 | -4.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |