← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 60% | 58% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.21 | value: +4% |
| Chaves win | 16% | 18% | 6.21 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.75 | 56% | 1.72 |
| Chaves +0.75 | 44% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 60% | 1.85 | value: +10% |
| Under | 48% | 40% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 42' | ⚽ | Juninho Vieira · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Euller · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Mendes · Chaves |
| 55' | 🟨 | Sidy Sarr · Chaves |
| 59' | ⚽ | Abel Ruíz · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cristián Borja · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 79' | 🟨 | Abel Ruíz · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 80' | 🟨 | Issah Abass · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luther Singh · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Castro |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 790.00 |
| 974.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1523.80 | 1754.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.01 | 25.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| league points | 32.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 14.75 | 13.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 21.82 |
| state index | 0.17 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |