← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 12, 08:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 75% | 84% | 1.26 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 17% | 11% | 6.26 | fair |
| Boavista win | 8% | 5% | 12.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal −1.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Boavista −1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 64% | 1.72 | value: +10% |
| Under | 44% | 36% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 2 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.