← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 39% | 32% | 2.51 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 42% | 3.17 | value: +32% |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 58% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 42% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Fábio Ronaldo · Rio Ave FC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Vítor Carvalho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Andreas Samaris · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Costinha · Rio Ave FC |
| 58' | 🟥 | Amine Oudrhiri · Rio Ave FC |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Fábio Ronaldo · Gil Vicente FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Patrick William · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jhonatan · Rio Ave FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Giorgi Aburjania · Gil Vicente FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 🟨 |
| Renato Pantalon · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Vitor · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.40 |
| coach days | 953.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 4.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1548.24 | 1572.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.82 | 35.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 27.12 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |