← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 46% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +18% |
| CD Santa Clara win | 25% | 25% | 4.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Pacos Ferreira −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Rildo · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rui Pires · Pacos Ferreira |
| 52' | 🟨 | Bruno Jordão · CD Santa Clara |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Vitorino Antunes · Pacos Ferreira |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nicolás Gaitán · Pacos Ferreira |
| 62' | 🟨 | Paulo Henrique · CD Santa Clara |
| 64' | 🟨 | Matheus Araújo · CD Santa Clara |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marafona · Pacos Ferreira |
| 71' | 🟨 | Victor Bobsin · CD Santa Clara |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nigel Thomas · Pacos Ferreira |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| 73' |
| 🟨 |
| Allano · CD Santa Clara |
| 80' | 🟨 | Maracás · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 69.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1430.36 | 1472.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.50 | -53.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 4.80 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 25.79 |
| state index | -0.33 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |