← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, Mar 10, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 88% | 1.25 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 16% | 8% | 6.23 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 8% | 3% | 14.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −1.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| FC Porto −1.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 41% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 9' | ⚽ | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 15' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 20' | 🟨 | Cassiano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 27' | ⚽ | Tiago Gouveia · GD Estoril Praia |
| 31' | ⚽ | André Franco · FC Porto |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tiago Santos · GD Estoril Praia |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Francisco Geraldes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 🟨 |
| Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟥 | Francisco Geraldes · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2108.00 | 982.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1922.00 | 1454.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.96 | -41.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 54.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 5.99 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 26.71 |
| state index | 1.27 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |