← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 4, 06:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 70% | 74% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 4.98 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 10% | 11% | 9.77 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Portimonense +1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 61% | 1.83 | value: +12% |
| Under | 47% | 39% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.