← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Mon, Feb 27, 09:15 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 49% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 23% | 24% | 4.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Vitória SC +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.