← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 26, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 81% | 83% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.94 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 6% | 7% | 15.47 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −2 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Gil Vicente FC −2 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 61% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 39% | 2.88 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 22' | 🟨 | Kanya Fujimoto · Gil Vicente FC |
| 27' | ⚽ | Fran Navarro · Gil Vicente FC |
| 35' | 🟥 | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 52' | 🟥 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 63' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 64' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 76' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 🟨 |
| Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 76' | 🟨 | Fran Navarro · Gil Vicente FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | Andrew · Gil Vicente FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bilel Aouacheria · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2096.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 4.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1921.36 | 1533.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.66 | 14.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.75 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| league points | 51.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.81 | — |
| state index | 1.73 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |