← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 36% | 32% | 2.73 | fair |
| Boavista win | 33% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.14 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Boavista +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Pedro Malheiro · Boavista |
| 15' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · Pacos Ferreira |
| 16' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 28' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ricardo Mangas · Boavista |
| 57' | ⚽ | Kenji Gorré · Boavista |
| 61' | ⚽ | Adrián Butzke · Pacos Ferreira |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kenji Gorré · Boavista |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 69' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · Pacos Ferreira |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| 🟨 |
| Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matchoi Djaló · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Reggie Cannon · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 56.00 | 452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1438.04 | 1511.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.81 | -0.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 12.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |