← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 25, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 42% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.03 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 44% | 2.64 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 20' | 🟨 | Kennedy Boateng · CD Santa Clara |
| 21' | 🟨 | Bruno Almeida · CD Santa Clara |
| 27' | 🟨 | Gabriel Batista · CD Santa Clara |
| 32' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 34' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Maritimo |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Kennedy Boateng · Maritimo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kento Misao · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | 🟨 | Xavier Quintilla · CD Santa Clara |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
| 78' | ⚽ | Percy Liza |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 85' | 🟨 | Moises Mosquera · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 86.00 |
| 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1446.41 | 1488.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.27 | -40.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.90 |
| state index | -0.53 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |