← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 39% | 38% | 2.52 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 30% | 34% | 3.45 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara +0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| FC Famalicão +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 60% | 1.47 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 40% | 2.80 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
| 24' | 🟨 | Adriano Firmino · CD Santa Clara |
| 33' | 🟨 | Francisco Moura · FC Famalicão |
| 48' | ⚽ | Iván Jaime · FC Famalicão |
| 75' | 🟨 | Xavier Quintilla · CD Santa Clara |
| 75' | 🟥 | Ygor Nogueira · CD Santa Clara |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Xavier Quintilla · CD Santa Clara |
| 76' | 🟥 | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 82' | ⚽ (og) | Paulo · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leandro Sanca · FC Famalicão |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Alexandre Penetra · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 18.00 | 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1505.25 | 1521.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.18 | -14.85 |
| eye test v1 | -1.38 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.90 | 23.15 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |