← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, Feb 17, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 39% | 42% | 2.45 | value: +3% |
| Vizela win | 32% | 31% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Luis Felipe · Vizela |
| 20' | 🟨 | Nuno Moreira · Vizela |
| 48' | 🟨 | Kiki Afonso · Vizela |
| 55' | ⚽ | Vítor Carvalho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Adrián Marín · Gil Vicente FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tomás Araújo · Gil Vicente FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Vítor Carvalho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kiki Afonso · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bilel Aouacheria · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vítor Carvalho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 🟥 |
| Vítor Carvalho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Méndez · Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 108.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1535.97 | 1519.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.97 | 20.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.53 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.29 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |