← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Thu, Feb 9, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Boavista win | 35% | 33% | 2.74 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 33% | 40% | 2.95 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Boavista +0 | 50% | 1.99 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 50% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 58% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 42% | 2.60 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 5 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |