← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 43% | 45% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.21 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 27% | 24% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Maritimo −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 61% | 1.73 | value: +5% |
| Over | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Euller · Chaves |
| 13' | 🟨 | Bruno Xadas · Maritimo |
| 14' | 🟨 | Stefano Beltrame · Maritimo |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
| 26' | 🟨 | Habib Sylla · Chaves |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
| 29' | 🟨 | Issah Abass · Chaves |
| 39' | 🟨 | Paulo Vitor · Chaves |
| 41' | 🟨 | João Teixeira · Chaves |
| 43' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| 80' | 🟨 | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Guima · Chaves |
| 84' | 🟨 | Val · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 734.00 |
| 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1503.53 | 1465.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.87 | 15.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 3.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |