← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Wed, Feb 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 75% | 71% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.53 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 8% | 12% | 13.92 | value: +66% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Maritimo +1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 61% | 1.68 | value: +3% |
| Under | 43% | 39% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Val · Maritimo |
| 7' | 🟨 | Bernardo Folha · FC Porto |
| 13' | 🟨 | Pablo Moreno · Maritimo |
| 36' | 🟨 | Léo Pereira · Maritimo |
| 38' | 🟨 | Bernardo Folha · FC Porto |
| 38' | 🟥 | Bernardo Folha · FC Porto |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pablo Moreno · Maritimo |
| 42' | 🟥 | Pablo Moreno · Maritimo |
| 50' | ⚽ | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 64' | 🟨 | F Nito · Maritimo |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 28 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Maritimo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Zaidu Sanusi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 62.00 |
| 2071.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1468.42 | 1905.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.40 | 6.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 2.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 10.15 | 10.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 9.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.64 |
| state index | -0.11 | 1.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |