← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 48% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 23% | 24% | 4.37 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Vizela −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 44% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Anderson · Vizela |
| 22' | 🟨 | Costinha · Rio Ave FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Andreas Samaris · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Aziz · Rio Ave FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Kiki Afonso · Vizela |
| 55' | ⚽ | Samu · Vizela |
| 64' | ⚽ | Igor Julião · Vizela |
| 68' | 🟨 | Samu · Vizela |
| 80' | 🟨 | Igor Julião · Vizela |
| 87' | 🟥 | Aderllan Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vizela | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Do Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 59.00 | 911.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1509.71 | 1543.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.76 | -5.91 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.20 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 8.76 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.29 | — |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |