← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 48% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 21% | 21% | 4.91 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 39% | 2.74 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Saviour Godwin · Casa Pia AC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Takahiro Kunimoto · Casa Pia AC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Rafael Martins · Casa Pia AC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Lucas Soares · Casa Pia AC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Victor Bobsin · CD Santa Clara |
| 75' | ⚽ | Yuki Soma · Casa Pia AC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Romário Baró · Casa Pia AC |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Henrique · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Babi · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Nacional |
| 🟨 |
| Adriano Firmino · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | ⚽ | Clayton · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2981.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1529.49 | 1523.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.39 | -14.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 45.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 34.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.90 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |