← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 36% | 39% | 2.68 | value: +4% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 33% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.11 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 65% | 1.62 | value: +6% |
| Over | 40% | 35% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 27' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Maritimo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Val · Maritimo |
| 47' | 🟨 | James Léa Siliki · GD Estoril Praia |
| 57' | 🟨 | João Afonso · Maritimo |
| 60' | 🟨 | João Afonso · Maritimo |
| 60' | 🟥 | João Afonso · Maritimo |
| 61' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 64' | 🟨 | Percy Liza · Maritimo |
| 67' | 🟨 | F Nito · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 52.00 |
| 935.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1458.67 | 1509.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.63 | -14.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |