← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 14, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 43% | 44% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +4% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 26% | 22% | 3.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Pacos Ferreira −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 59% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 41% | 2.49 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Nigel Thomas · Pacos Ferreira |
| 27' | 🟨 | Josué Sá · Rio Ave FC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Nigel Thomas · Pacos Ferreira |
| 41' | 🟨 | Andreas Samaris · Rio Ave FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Pacos Ferreira |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marafona · Pacos Ferreira |
| 50' | 🟨 | Matchoi Djaló · Pacos Ferreira |
| 68' | 🟨 | João Graça · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Uilton Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Boateng · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 🟨 |
| Gonçalo Rodrigues · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nuno Lima · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 896.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1568.31 | 1416.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.95 | -29.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.51 |
| league points | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 29.13 |
| state index | 0.37 | -1.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |