← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 8, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 36% | 39% | 2.76 | value: +9% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 35% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Chaves +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Uilton Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 17' | 🟨 | Luiz Carlos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 26' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · Pacos Ferreira |
| 28' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Pacos Ferreira |
| 29' | 🟨 | Issah Abass · Chaves |
| 37' | 🟨 | João Teixeira · Chaves |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · Pacos Ferreira |
| 55' | 🟨 | Maracás · Pacos Ferreira |
| 67' | ⚽ | Juninho Vieira · Chaves |
| 75' | ⚽ | Uilton Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 83' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| 🟨 |
| Habib Sylla · Chaves |
| 89' | 🟨 | Bruno Langa · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Vitor · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 7.00 | 706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1415.06 | 1524.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.98 | 3.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 9.76 | 8.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.14 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 27.75 |
| state index | -1.81 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |