← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, Dec 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 36% | 37% | 2.72 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 32% | 32% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.03 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Famalicão +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 37% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Bruno Langa · Chaves |
| 18' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 20' | 🟨 | Jô Batista · Chaves |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alexandre Penetra · FC Famalicão |
| 39' | 🟨 | Guima · Chaves |
| 44' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | 🟨 | Enea Mihaj · FC Famalicão |
| 53' | ⚽ | Iván Jaime · FC Famalicão |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pablo Felipe · FC Famalicão |
| 79' | 🟨 | Santiago Colombatto · FC Famalicão |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| 🟨 |
| Issah Abass · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 697.00 | 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1530.40 | 1510.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.07 | -22.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.50 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |