← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 39% | 34% | 2.50 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 31% | 30% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.25 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Portimonense −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 42% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 22' | ⚽ | Erison · GD Estoril Praia |
| 24' | 🟨 | Henrique Jocu · Portimonense |
| 37' | 🟨 | Pedro Álvaro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Moustapha Seck · Portimonense |
| 52' | 🟨 | Anderson Oliveira · Portimonense |
| 52' | 🟨 | Daniel Figueira · GD Estoril Praia |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tiago Santos · GD Estoril Praia |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Portimonense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Daniel Figueira · GD Estoril Praia |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 22 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 66' |
| 🟥 |
| Daniel Figueira · GD Estoril Praia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ricardo Matos · Portimonense |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pedro Silva · GD Estoril Praia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Edson Mexer · GD Estoril Praia |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Welinton Junior · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Carlos · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.60 |
| coach days | 1002.00 | 851.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1508.76 | 1524.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.79 | 22.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.83 |
| league points | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 5.84 | 7.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |