← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Vizela win | 48% | 43% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.44 | value: +19% |
| CD Santa Clara win | 24% | 22% | 3.99 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Vizela −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand