← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 9, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 67% | 78% | 1.41 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 20% | 13% | 5.24 | fair |
| Chaves win | 13% | 9% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Chaves −1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 70% | 1.58 | value: +10% |
| Under | 39% | 30% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 5' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 54' | 🟨 | Vítor Tormena · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 71' | 🟨 | Guima · Chaves |
| 72' | 🟨 | Paulo Vitor · Chaves |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Chaves |
| 77' | 🟨 | Issah Abass · Chaves |
| 78' | 🟨 | Luther Singh · Chaves |
| 79' | 🟨 | Abel Ruíz · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 84' | 🟨 | Tiago Sa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 84' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 30 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 🟨 |
| Jean-Baptiste Gorby · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 799.00 | 615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 10.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1761.63 | 1504.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.63 | 16.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.70 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.02 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 26.84 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |