← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Mon, Oct 3, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 39% | 53% | 2.51 | value: +33% |
| Draw | 31% | 18% | 3.12 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 31% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Casa Pia AC +0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 59% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 41% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Bruno Xadas · Maritimo |
| 13' | 🟨 | Moises Mosquera · Maritimo |
| 18' | ⚽ | Clayton · Casa Pia AC |
| 21' | 🟨 | João Afonso · Maritimo |
| 29' | 🟨 | Nermin Zolotić · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nermin Zolotić · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Nermin Zolotić · Casa Pia AC |
| 67' | 🟥 | Vitor Costa · Maritimo |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Leonardo Lelo · Casa Pia AC |
| 83' | 🟨 | João Nunes · Casa Pia AC |
| 85' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 🟨 |
| Rafael Martins · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 336.00 | 2863.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1449.53 | 1541.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.56 | 41.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 61.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.84 |
| league points | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 15.09 | 15.09 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.44 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | — |