← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Sep 17, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 70% | 80% | 1.38 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 20% | 13% | 5.00 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 11% | 8% | 9.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| GD Estoril Praia +1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 63% | 1.83 | value: +16% |
| Under | 47% | 37% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | André Franco · FC Porto |
| 23' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 41' | ⚽ | Tiago Gouveia · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mor Ndiaye · GD Estoril Praia |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Martins · GD Estoril Praia |
| 57' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mor Ndiaye · GD Estoril Praia |
| 77' | 🟥 | Mor Ndiaye · GD Estoril Praia |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 🟨 |
| Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Figueira · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Álvaro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 808.00 | 1934.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1526.07 | 1929.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.98 | -5.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 4.91 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.22 | 26.53 |
| state index | 0.13 | 1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |