← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Sep 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 47% | 49% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 25% | 21% | 3.93 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Brian Araújo · Gil Vicente FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Aziz · Rio Ave FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Juan Manuel Boselli · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Rodrigues · Rio Ave FC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Aziz · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lucas Cunha · Gil Vicente FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Rodrigues · Rio Ave FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Fran Navarro · Gil Vicente FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Rodrigues · Rio Ave FC |
| 83' | 🟥 | Gonçalo Rodrigues · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 🟨 |
| Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Villodres · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Amaral · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio Ronaldo · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Costinha · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 108.00 | 777.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 4.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1573.02 | 1546.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.29 | 19.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 5.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.60 | 25.86 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |