← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Sep 11, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 36% | 34% | 2.73 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 34% | 33% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Gil Vicente FC +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Maritimo +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 61% | 1.83 | value: +11% |
| Over | 47% | 39% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |