← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Sep 4, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 45% | 48% | 2.14 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.19 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 25% | 20% | 4.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo −0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Diogo Mendes · Maritimo |
| 36' | ⚽ | Bruno Xadas · Maritimo |
| 39' | 🟨 | Paulo · CD Santa Clara |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Allano · CD Santa Clara |
| 53' | 🟥 | André Vidigal · Maritimo |
| 54' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 58' | 🟨 | Moises Mosquera · Maritimo |
| 60' | ⚽ | Matheus Babi · CD Santa Clara |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kennedy Boateng · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 🟨 |
| Rafael Brito · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 246.00 | 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1534.97 | 1467.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.53 | -45.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 8.10 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.68 | -1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |