← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Tue, Aug 30, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 89% | 93% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 5% | 12.94 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 3% | 2% | 38.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira −3 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −3 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 64% | 1.26 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 36% | 4.00 | value: +45% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · Pacos Ferreira |
| 16' | 🟨 | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 35' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 39' | ⚽ | N'Dri Koffi · Pacos Ferreira |
| 42' | ⚽ | David Neres · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ze Oliveira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | João Mário · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 56' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 80' | ⚽ | N'Dri Koffi · Pacos Ferreira |
| 84' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 89' | 🟨 | Abbas Ibrahim · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 60.00 | 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1844.57 | 1462.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.75 | -65.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 44.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.47 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.19 | — |
| state index | 1.53 | -1.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |