← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Mon, Aug 29, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 39% | 37% | 2.49 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 31% | 33% | 3.16 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Vizela −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Raphael Guzzo · Vizela |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Fran Navarro · Gil Vicente FC |
| 26' | ⚽ | Juan Manuel Boselli · Gil Vicente FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Kiki Afonso · Vizela |
| 39' | 🟨 | Pedro Tiba · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Cunha · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kiko Bondoso · Vizela |
| 45' | ⚽ | Anderson · Vizela |
| 66' | 🟨 | Giorgi Aburjania · Gil Vicente FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Juan Manuel Boselli · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vizela | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Estádio Do Vizela |
| 🟨 |
| Adrián Marín · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1155.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1482.56 | 1557.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.77 | -17.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 9.14 | 4.05 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.29 | — |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |