← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, Aug 26, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 38% | 29% | 2.57 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 32% | 30% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 41% | 3.20 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pacos Ferreira +0 | 55% | 1.79 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 63% | 1.68 | value: +6% |
| Over | 43% | 37% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |