← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 37% | 39% | 2.64 | value: +3% |
| Vizela win | 34% | 32% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Vizela +0 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 16' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
| 21' | 🟨 | Raphael Guzzo · Vizela |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kévin Zohi · Vizela |
| 62' | 🟨 | João Teixeira · Chaves |
| 68' | 🟨 | Juninho Vieira · Chaves |
| 71' | 🟨 | João Teixeira · Chaves |
| 71' | 🟥 | João Teixeira · Chaves |
| 78' | 🟥 | Andrés Sarmiento · Vizela |
| 80' | 🟨 | Helder Morim · Chaves |
| 85' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| Kévin Zohi · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Isaac · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kiko Bondoso · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudemir · Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 565.00 | 1146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1476.47 | 1480.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.88 | -7.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 42.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.29 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |