← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, Aug 19, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 45% | 48% | 2.17 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 25% | 24% | 3.84 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Martins · GD Estoril Praia |
| 11' | 🟨 | Renato Pantalon · Rio Ave FC |
| 14' | 🟨 | Tiago Gouveia · GD Estoril Praia |
| 22' | 🟨 | Pedro Amaral · Rio Ave FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Costinha · Rio Ave FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Gilson Tavares · GD Estoril Praia |
| 73' | ⚽ | Aziz · Rio Ave FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Tiago Gouveia · GD Estoril Praia |
| 83' | 🟨 | Paulo Vitor · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 🟨 |
| Mor Ndiaye · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟥 | João Ferreira · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 779.00 | 748.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 4.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1501.21 | 1523.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.15 | -23.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 5.99 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.01 | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |