← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Aug 14, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 38% | 39% | 2.48 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.03 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 30% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Boavista −0.25 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 63% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 37% | 2.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Bruno Almeida · CD Santa Clara |
| 28' | 🟨 | Victor Bobsin · CD Santa Clara |
| 34' | ⚽ | Rildo · CD Santa Clara |
| 40' | 🟨 | Cristian Tassano · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Boavista |
| 51' | 🟨 | Bruno Almeida · CD Santa Clara |
| 51' | 🟥 | Bruno Almeida · CD Santa Clara |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rildo · CD Santa Clara |
| 57' | 🟨 | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
| 62' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 63' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| 🟨 |
| Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 66' | ⚽ | Martim Tavares · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Bracali · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Tassano · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟥 | Cristian Tassano · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 256.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1530.01 | 1567.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.18 | 1.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.82 | — |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |