← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 6, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 81% | 87% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 8.06 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 6% | 4% | 23.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −2 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Maritimo −2 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 69% | 1.53 | value: +6% |
| Under | 38% | 31% | 2.59 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 28' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 35' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 40' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 68' | ⚽ | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 76' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · FC Porto |
| 78' | 🟨 | Andre Teles · Maritimo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 88' | ⚽ |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1892.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1916.13 | 1500.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.13 | 5.19 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.54 | — |
| state index | 1.90 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |