← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 6, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 45% | 43% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.35 | value: +5% |
| Vizela win | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Vizela −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |