← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, May 14, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 50% | 62% | 1.93 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.62 | fair |
| Vizela win | 23% | 18% | 4.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Vizela −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 62% | 1.87 | value: +16% |
| Under | 48% | 38% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟥 | Ivanildo Fernandes · Vizela |
| 8' | ⚽ | Sori Mané · Moreirense FC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Artur Jorge · Moreirense FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Derik Lacerda · Moreirense FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pedro Amador · Moreirense FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Richard Ofori · Vizela |
| 64' | 🟨 | Anderson · Vizela |
| 66' | ⚽ | Yan Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Igor Julião · Vizela |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Conceição · |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcos Paulo · Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 194.00 |
| 1048.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1462.78 | 1485.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.21 | -11.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.20 | 48.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.29 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |