← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, May 7, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 40% | 36% | 2.43 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordi Mboula · GD Estoril Praia |
| 53' | 🟨 | Sori Mané · Moreirense FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | André Franco · GD Estoril Praia |
| 75' | 🟨 | Pedro Amador · Moreirense FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 81' | 🟨 | André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 84' | 🟥 | Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rui Fonte · GD Estoril Praia |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Lucho Vega · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.60 |
| coach days | 675.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1485.00 | 1482.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.91 | -3.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| league points | 36.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 27.61 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |