← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, May 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 40% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Boavista win | 29% | 25% | 3.34 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Paulinho Mota · Moreirense FC |
| -5' | 🟥 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 20' | ⚽ | Kenji Gorré · Boavista |
| 23' | 🟨 | Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ilija Vukotić · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Malheiro · Boavista |
| 67' | 🟨 | André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Moreirense FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sori Mané · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Rafael Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| ⚽ |
| Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Bracali · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟥 | Petar Musa · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 181.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1492.97 | 1520.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.27 | -7.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 26.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 27.06 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |