← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 46% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.19 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 23% | 19% | 4.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Belenenses −0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 56% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | André Franco · GD Estoril Praia |
| -5' | 🟥 | Romário Baró · GD Estoril Praia |
| -5' | 🟥 | Diogo Calila · Belenenses |
| 26' | 🟨 | Arthur Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 26' | 🟨 | Carraça · Belenenses |
| 27' | ⚽ | Rosier Loreintz · GD Estoril Praia |
| 30' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | André Franco · GD Estoril Praia |
| 65' | 🟨 | André Franco · GD Estoril Praia |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nahuel Ferraresi · GD Estoril Praia |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Allison Safira |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 3 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 70' | 🟨 | Rosier Loreintz · GD Estoril Praia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Afonso Sousa · Belenenses |
| 84' | 🟨 | Yohan Tavares · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Lourenço · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rosier Loreintz · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rosier Loreintz · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟥 | Abel Camará · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sandro · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 662.00 |
| 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1484.88 | 1451.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.92 | 28.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| league points | 35.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |