← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 16, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 38% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Boavista win | 28% | 30% | 3.63 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Maritimo −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 61% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 39% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 21' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ivan Rossi · Maritimo |
| 32' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Maritimo |
| 41' | ⚽ | Matheus Costa · Maritimo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Boavista |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Pedro Pelágio · Maritimo |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Petar Musa · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 72' | 🟥 | Tiago Morais · Boavista |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jeriel De Santis · Boavista |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jackson Porozo · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 166.00 |
| 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1494.81 | 1533.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.73 | 17.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 33.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |