← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Apr 15, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 43% | 39% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 28% | 34% | 3.67 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +3% |
| Over | 47% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 20' | ⚽ | Élder Santana · Gil Vicente FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Pepê · FC Famalicão |
| 38' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 67' | 🟨 | Vítor Carvalho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kanya Fujimoto · Gil Vicente FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Diogo Figueiras · FC Famalicão |
| 75' | 🟨 | Samuel Lino |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 87' | 🟨 | Hernán de la Fuente · FC Famalicão |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Fran Navarro · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charles Pickel · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 135.00 |
| 1019.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 4.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1510.74 | 1584.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.11 | -23.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.81 |
| league points | 28.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.94 | — |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |