← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 10, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Porto win | 68% | 67% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.50 | value: +18% |
| Vitória SC win | 12% | 11% | 8.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Vitória SC +1.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| FC Porto +1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 52% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 48% | 2.55 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.