← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 34% | 40% | 2.85 | value: +14% |
| Portimonense win | 34% | 30% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Portimonense +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 61% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 39% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Heriberto Tavares · FC Famalicão |
| 42' | ⚽ | Welinton Junior · Portimonense |
| 43' | 🟨 | Welinton Junior · Portimonense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carlinhos · Portimonense |
| 49' | 🟨 | Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 62' | 🟨 | Charles Pickel · FC Famalicão |
| 62' | 🟨 | Diogo Figueiras · FC Famalicão |
| 70' | 🟨 | Filipe Relvas · Portimonense |
| 80' | 🟨 | Henrique Jocu · Portimonense |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 🟨 |
| Luquinha · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 799.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1478.18 | 1530.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.41 | -15.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.20 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.70 | 24.71 |
| state index | -1.22 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |