← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 9, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 74% | 88% | 1.30 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 17% | 7% | 6.50 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 9% | 5% | 13.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Belenenses −1.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Afonso Sousa · Belenenses |
| 22' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 33' | 🟨 | Diogo Calila · Belenenses |
| 45' | 🟨 | Siphephelo Sithole · Belenenses |
| 48' | 🟨 | Rafael Camacho · Belenenses |
| 54' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 58' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 69' | 🟨 | Yohan Tavares · Belenenses |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nilton Varela · Belenenses |
| 85' | 🟨 | Licá · Belenenses |
| 88' | 🟨 | Valentino Lazaro |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 616.00 |
| 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1818.11 | 1443.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.76 | 8.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| league points | 61.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.91 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.78 | — |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |