← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Apr 8, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 55% | 58% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.73 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 19% | 20% | 5.37 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 42% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 58% | 2.08 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |